Elevance Health faces risks from declining Medicaid membership due to eligibility redeterminations, potential losses in Medicare Advantage bonus payments, and increased medical cost trends, particularly in Medicaid. Litigation, including antitrust lawsuits and a potential Medicare risk adjustment case, poses significant financial exposure. Market volatility and interest rate increases could negatively impact investment portfolios and borrowing costs. The company's substantial debt load and potential rating downgrades are also significant risks.
Financial Upside
Elevance Health anticipates revenue growth from premium rate increases and CarelonRx product revenue. Investment income from fixed maturity securities and alternative investments is expected to increase. The sale of life and disability businesses generated a gain. Potential acquisitions, including those of Mosaic Health and CareBridge, could provide future growth opportunities. Continued growth in commercial plans, including through Public Exchanges, is anticipated.
