Mosaic faces risks from fluctuating currency exchange rates (especially Brazilian Real and Canadian Dollar), interest rates, commodity prices (natural gas, ammonia, sulfur), and freight costs. Operational disruptions due to weather events (hurricanes), maintenance, and potential legal challenges (environmental, tax, and permitting) are also significant risks. The company's investments in MWSPC and other non-consolidated entities carry risks of financial performance and regulatory approvals. Contingent liabilities from environmental remediation and legal proceedings pose a substantial risk.
Financial Upside
Mosaic's potential upside includes higher finished goods sales prices, lower raw material costs (sulfur, ammonia), and favorable product mix. The company's share repurchase program and dividend payments could also contribute to shareholder value. The potential $1.5 billion transaction with Ma'aden offers a significant opportunity for value creation. Improved global supply in the potash market could also positively impact sales volume and pricing.
