Moderna faces significant financial risks stemming from reduced COVID-19 vaccine demand, transitioning to a seasonal market, and resulting inventory write-downs. Large provisions for sales returns and wholesaler chargebacks also pose risks. The company's substantial future capital requirements for research and development, manufacturing, and facility expansion are also a concern. Uncertainties in legal proceedings, including patent litigation, could lead to substantial losses.
Financial Upside
Moderna has two approved commercial products (COVID-19 and RSV vaccines). The company anticipates higher sales during fall and winter seasons. New COVID-19 vaccine strains targeting KP.2 and JN.1 are approved, potentially boosting sales. Collaboration agreements, including one with Merck for personalized cancer vaccines, and funding arrangements with Blackstone for influenza vaccine development, offer potential future revenue streams.
